Which Trump is telling the truth?

U.S. President Donald Trump blamed the “Deep State” for derailing the policies he had promised voters during his first term. The term refers to a shadowy group of bureaucrats and political elites who exert outsized influence over government policy, independently of the elected administration. According to Trump supporters, the “Deep State” is also behind the “endless wars” that have cost American taxpayers trillions of dollars and thousands of lives. In other words, they see the Deep State as the root of all of America’s problems.

Throughout his campaign for a second term, Trump repeatedly vowed to purge the federal government of Deep State elements. One such move was appointing Tulsi Gabbard—who had defected from the Democratic Party to join the Republican camp—as Director of National Intelligence.

In a routine intelligence briefing to Congress last March, Gabbard reported that Iran was not actively pursuing nuclear weapons. On his return from the G7 Summit in Canada, Trump was asked about her remarks. He responded bluntly: “I don’t care what she said—they were very close to having a bomb.” I don’t believe Trump even believes his own words. It seems more like he’s laying the groundwork for an excuse, in case the U.S. ends up directly involved in Israel’s war.

A similar excuse was used in 2003 during the invasion of Iraq. Before the 2016 election, Trump himself accused the Bush administration of lying to the American people. “They said there were weapons of mass destruction,” Trump had said. “There were none. And they knew there were none.” Neoconservative pundit Mark Levin lashed out at Trump for those remarks, calling him a “radical lunatic.” Levin told Trump, “You’re a liar,” and claimed he had crossed a line.

Now, the same Mark Levin is whispering in Trump’s ear: “Bomb Iran. Bomb Iran. Bomb Iran.” On the other side is conservative commentator Tucker Carlson, who has warned that Levin is trying to drag the U.S. into another war. The split within Trump’s camp over war with Iran can be seen clearly in the opposing stances of Levin and Carlson.

This past May, Trump criticized the neocons during a speech in Riyadh. He knows their playbook. While negotiations with Tehran were still underway, Trump allowed Israel to strike Iran, choosing to respond based on developments on the ground. His most recent move—giving Iran a two-week deadline for a deal—seems to confirm this approach.

For Israel, which wants immediate U.S. military action against Iran, that two-week window is bad news. While Israel is in a hurry, Iran appears to be playing a long game, banking on strategic resilience. As for what Trump will ultimately decide—I'm not sure even he knows. In 1939, Winston Churchill described Russia as “a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma.” Trump’s contradictory statements remind me of that.

Truth is, Trump himself bears a lot of responsibility for the current situation. By pulling the U.S. out of the 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal that Barack Obama signed, he opened this Pandora’s box. He did it to satisfy his Zionist billionaire donors. Now, the “Netanyahu lobby” is trying to back him into a corner to sabotage any potential deal with Iran.

That lobby has launched an intense campaign to convince Trump that the only way to take out Iran’s nuclear facilities is with U.S. bombs. But some experts argue that even U.S. firepower may not finish the job—and could instead trigger a ground war, opening the door to a wider regional or even global conflict. Could it be that Trump doesn’t see this trap?

Netanyahu’s goal is to make sure the U.S. drops the first bomb. He knows what follows. That first bomb would signal the end of Trump’s “America First” doctrine. It would be the opening bell to a new chapter in which Americans are dragged into a war that serves not their own interests, but Israel’s.

How history judges Trump now depends on the decisions he’s about to make. Will he be remembered as the man who ended endless wars—or as the one who added yet another link to the chain? Trump, who once dreamed of winning the Nobel Peace Prize, may end up getting a very different award from Israel: “The Prize for War, Destruction, and Catastrophe.” The “America First” story may well go down as the beginning of America’s self-inflicted disaster.