Cyprus and Syria: The cargo ship is changing course

Today, I’ll talk about two critical issues: Cyprus and Syria. Let’s start with the more surprising development—Cyprus. It has just emerged that the situation on the island is entering a new, more positive phase. Meanwhile, Syria is being steered off course by intelligence-led provocations. Both developments are part of a wider power struggle, deeply interconnected. Let’s begin with Cyprus.

By the time you read this, I’ll be in Cyprus, attending Teknofest in person. I’ve been trying to draw attention to recent developments on the island: the Israel-Greek Cypriot-Greece axis, the terrorist network being formed in the south, and maritime spatial planning maps (see: “Athens Is Sailing in Dangerous Waters,” April 22). But now, there’s a major shift that could unsettle the anti-Türkiye alliance in the region. Let’s highlight two key developments:

1. A Shift in the UN’s Stance on Cyprus

The UN is taking a new position on Cyprus. Previously a staunch supporter of negotiations for a final settlement, the UN appears to be stepping back from that line following a report by Secretary-General Guterres’s personal envoy, Holguín. Though the report’s full contents haven’t been released, it reportedly concludes that there is no longer a shared basis for a federation and acknowledges the negative impact of economic sanctions on Turkish Cypriots’ daily lives. Guterres is now said to prefer focusing on practical steps to improve daily life on the island, rather than pushing for a final political resolution.

In plain terms, this signals a major change: the UN is also moving away from the Greek Cypriots’ demand for a federation and edging closer to recognizing the reality of a two-state island.

2. A Federation-Free Meeting in Geneva

This shift was reflected in a high-level meeting on Cyprus held in Geneva on March 18, under Guterres’s patronage. Behind-the-scenes details are now emerging. For the first time in the history of Cyprus negotiations, the topic of federation—long pushed by the Greek side—wasn’t even on the table. Instead, discussions focused on practical cooperation that would benefit both communities: border crossings, landmine clearance, environmental projects, setting up solar panels and electricity generation in the buffer zone, cemetery restorations, and the creation of a youth committee. Another meeting is planned for July to review the progress made.

In summary, this Geneva meeting marked a turning point in the Cyprus negotiations. One diplomat even drew a telling analogy: “The cargo ship’s route has shifted by one or two degrees. Over a long distance, that will take it in a completely new direction.”

What Will the Turkic States Do?

Cyprus also returned to the spotlight when some members of the Organization of Turkic States updated their relations with the Greek Cypriot administration. I previously wrote that this was a misstep driven by a misplaced fear: “If the Ukraine issue subsides, Russia will turn its attention to us,” prompting engagement with the EU (see: “The Hidden Agenda of That Forum,” April 15). After a long silence, Turkish Foreign Minister Fidan dismissed the matter as a “family issue.” But behind closed doors, conversations continue. The Council of Elders is meeting in the TRNC, and the next Turkic States summit is scheduled for the last week of this month in Hungary. While no concrete outcomes are expected from the summit, there’s growing anticipation in Ankara that relations with the TRNC will soon enter a new phase.

Syria: Vulnerable to Provocation

Now to Syria—a fragile country trying to steer a course aimed at preserving its unity, sovereignty, and legitimacy in turbulent waters. But some actors are determined to push it off that path.

Two key developments need to be highlighted:

1. The SDF’s Push for Federation

With support from the U.S., France, and Barzani, the SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces) has held a conference demanding a federal system. I’ve previously explained how Washington worked behind the scenes to bring these actors together (see: “What Comes After Qandil?,” April 29).

But now, new details are emerging. The SDF isn’t just making demands—it’s also failing to uphold its side of a March 10 agreement with Damascus. Observers on the ground say the group hasn’t fully withdrawn from either Aleppo or the Tishrin Dam. Meanwhile, demographic manipulation continues in areas under SDF control. There’s growing discontent in Damascus, with some interpreting the federation demand as a direct challenge that could nullify the March 10 deal. And if that agreement collapses, the consequences could be severe.

2. Israel Still Pushing for Chaos

Over the past week, Damascus has shifted its attention from the north to the south. After U.S. President Trump once told Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to “be reasonable,” Israel held back from further steps in Syria—at least in matters directly involving Türkiye. But its efforts to divide Syria and sow chaos have never stopped.

Israel wants the southern Druze regions of Syria demilitarized and for the Syrian army to stay away. Recently, an anonymous audio recording allegedly featuring a Druze cleric insulting the Prophet Muhammad surfaced and triggered protests. Such unverified recordings are classic hallmarks of intelligence operations and traps. Unfortunately, the trap seems to have worked. Armed Druze groups in the Jaramana neighborhood south of Damascus ambushed government forces, and clashes broke out. Israel then attacked Syrian troops headed to the area using drones and fighter jets.

This is a highly sensitive issue. Integrating the Druze community into the national framework is vital for Syria’s territorial integrity—especially since the SDF, which is pushing for federation, is closely watching what the Druze will do. Even a small concession in the south could set the stage for the country’s fragmentation.