‘Excellence in diplomacy': Türkiye could help guide Trump-led US to end wars, says economist Jeffrey Sachs

- 'The war in the Middle East will end when there is a State of Palestine. Turkish diplomats can explain that to the US ... Türkiye's excellence in diplomacy is really important especially now,' says Sachs

- 'If Europe is smart, it will rethink its policies, re-engage with China and Russia. It should look for a peaceful settlement between Ukraine and Russia,' says the world-renowned economist, who also points to the need for the US to change course on Taiwan

As Donald Trump and his team prepare to take the reins of the US government next January, wars in the Middle East and Ukraine loom large on the foreign policy agenda — two conflicts the president-elect has vowed to end. To achieve this, Trump could benefit from the “excellence in diplomacy” offered by one country close to both conflicts, Türkiye, says renowned US economist Jeffrey Sachs.

In an exclusive interview with Anadolu, Sachs, director of the Center for Sustainable Development at Columbia University, reflected on the potential impacts of Trump's return to office on global foreign policy and economic relations, highlighting Türkiye's unique potential role as an ally and peace broker.

While Trump's unpredictable approach could yield both promising and concerning outcomes, Sachs believes he might have opportunities for a breakthrough in these longstanding conflicts.

“One positive feature is that he may act to end the war in Ukraine. This is a war that has been caused basically by the US intention to expand NATO to Ukraine, and Russia's resistance to having NATO expand to Ukraine. This was a bad idea of the United States for 30 years, and it finally led to war,” Sachs noted.

“Trump is, I think, interested in ending this war. The way to end the war is a basic deal that NATO will not expand to Ukraine and Russia will stop the fighting. I think that is possible. That would be good news.”

However, Sachs expressed concern over Trump's likely approach in the Middle East and staunch support for Israel, describing the financial backing he's received from “Zionist extremists” as a potential obstacle to balanced diplomacy in the region. “What is needed right now is the two-state solution. Whether Trump is a diplomat or just a supporter of Netanyahu is the real question now,” he said.

- Without policy shift, US faces global isolation

During his previous term in office, Trump gave a “carte blanche” to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who, Sachs said, is now “leading a genocide in Gaza,” where Tel Aviv's offensive has killed 43,000 Palestinians since October last year, with the risk of drawing the US into war with Iran.

Besides the massive death toll in Gaza, Israel's onslaught continues to displace almost the entire population of the territory amid an ongoing blockade that has led to severe shortages of food, clean water, and medicine.

Israel, also facing a genocide case at the International Court of Justice for its actions in Gaza, is “absolutely reckless, absolutely extremist, and committing grave war crimes and spreading violence,” said Sachs. “Netanyahu is not in control.”

“We will see if Trump has any limits to his support for Israel. Maybe he will understand that he has got to stop this spreading war in the Middle East,” he said, highlighting that the only way to peace lies in facilitating Palestinian statehood, a route supported by “almost the entire world other than the US and Israel.”

Pointing out the vested interest Trump and the US have in keeping good relations with Arab nations, Türkiye, and the Islamic world more generally, he said that these countries, along with the BRICS group, African Union, and others are calling on Washington to change course and stop blocking Palestine's entry into the UN.

“Whether the US listens right now is the big question. If it doesn't, the US will be diplomatically isolated from all the rest of the world,” said Sachs. “The US is the only remaining obstacle to a State of Palestine in the UN since Israel does not have a veto over Palestine's membership in the UN.”

- Türkiye: A possible guide to peace

In Sachs' view, Türkiye could be a valuable advisor to the US on how to end the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. “There is no country in the world that understands the Black Sea region, the Eastern Mediterranean, and the Middle East better than Türkiye. There is no country that has had more intensive diplomacy than Türkiye because Türkiye has been at this for 400 years.”

Turkish politicians and diplomats are especially well-versed in navigating relations with Russia and Middle Eastern countries, he said. Referring to the near-success of Türkiye's mediation between Ukraine and Russia in March 2022, Sachs suggested that Türkiye could help the US see a path to ending the Ukraine war.

“The war in the Middle East will end when there is a State of Palestine. Turkish diplomats can explain that to the US. So, I think the best thing that Türkiye can do is to help the US to get its foreign policy right. Türkiye's excellence in diplomacy is really important especially now,” he said.

Sachs also noted that Türkiye's own interests align strongly with achieving peace, as prolonged conflicts hinder the dynamic economic growth and development that it could achieve in peacetime.

- Policy ‘rethink' needed in Europe

On transatlantic relations, Sachs predicted that Trump and his administration will not be “very friendly” to Europe, as possible tariffs loom on the horizon.

According to an analysis by the London School of Economics, his proposed tariffs could potentially reshape international trade relations and supply chains with significant consequences for the EU and its trade priorities.

The study estimates the tariffs could shrink the US economy by 0.64%, China's by 0.68%, and the EU's by 0.11%. However, certain sectors, such as Germany's automobile exports, would bear a disproportionate impact, requiring protective measures.

“So, if Europe is smart, it will rethink its policies, re-engage with China and Russia. It should look for a peaceful settlement between Ukraine and Russia. It should drop the rhetoric about defeating Russia which has always been a naive and dangerous idea.”

According to Sachs, the EU's severing of ties with Russia, combined with strained relations with China, has been a costly mistake.

“I hope that the European leaders come to understand that they cannot just blindly follow the US,” Sachs said, emphasizing the consequences this approach has had for the European economy.

- China, Taiwan, and the risk of escalating US-China tensions

As an “ardent protectionist,” Trump also wants to see Chinese imports to US markets curbed, according to Sachs, who cautioned that current US policies regarding Taiwan could lead to an open conflict.

He pointed to increasing defense engagements between Taipei and Washington that have worried Beijing, which claims Taiwan as its “breakaway province.”

“I think we are heading towards an open conflict with China unless the US changes its policy,” he warned, adding that this risk could be eased by Elon Musk — a top campaign backer of the president-elect — who is likely to urge him to stabilize relations with Beijing."

“If the US stops sending arms to Taiwan, the risk of a US-China war will drop dramatically,” he said.