Trump-Netanyahu Relationship Takes a Turn for the Worse

Despite former President Donald Trump’s repeated calls for a swift resolution, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s announcement that Israel will expand its military operations and occupy much of Gaza has further deepened tensions between the two leaders. On Sunday, Trump reiterated his desire for an end to the war, saying, “We’re discussing this with Israel and trying to stop it as quickly as possible.”

During his recent Gulf tour, Trump pointedly skipped Israel, signaling that he now prioritizes American interests. Netanyahu’s decision to escalate in Gaza appears to have irritated Trump, who is already uncomfortable with the deepening policy rift between the two. Still, after a shooting targeting two Israeli embassy staff in Washington, Trump sent Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem to offer condolences—an effort to reaffirm America’s continued support for Israel.

Yet as a politician who centers his style around claiming success and political wins, Trump is visibly frustrated by Netanyahu’s unwillingness to commit to anything more than a brief ceasefire. Their deteriorating relationship may not just be a temporary rift—it could reflect a deeper shift in the dynamics of the U.S.-Israel alliance.

Will Trump Make Netanyahu Pay?

Israel’s brutal campaign in Gaza has tested the limits of America’s willingness to shield it from international backlash. Netanyahu, a master of manipulating U.S. politics, managed to extract far more than expected from the Biden administration. As pro-Palestinian protests erupt across the U.S. and tensions spike in the Middle East, Netanyahu has continued to raise the stakes, relying heavily on pro-Israel lobbying groups to exert influence on Congress.

With both Biden’s ideological backing and overwhelming congressional support, Netanyahu has pushed the war toward Lebanon, Syria, and even Iran. His refusal to accept even a brief suspension of U.S. weapons shipments shows just how emboldened he feels. Betting on Trump’s re-election, Netanyahu has gambled that the pressure on him will be temporary.

Right before Trump is expected to take office again, Netanyahu seemingly conceded by agreeing to Trump’s proposed three-phase ceasefire plan—only to return to war before even completing the first phase. Trump’s decision to drop demands that Gulf-Israel normalization be a prerequisite for regional deals was seen as a loss for Israel, yet Netanyahu still pressed forward with military escalation in Gaza.

Although Trump has criticized the worsening humanitarian crisis, it’s unclear whether he actually intends to hold Netanyahu accountable in any meaningful way.

America’s Shifting Middle East Strategy

Under Trump, U.S. policy in the Middle East is undergoing a major transformation. Biden stuck to the appearance of diplomacy with Iran and avoided new strategic moves, all while claiming that the region was enjoying an era of stability. But the Gaza war upended that narrative. Despite the humanitarian catastrophe, the Biden administration continued its policy of unconditional support for Israel.

Trump, meanwhile, has taken a different tack. He’s applied pressure on Israel to agree to ceasefires, supported hostage-exchange negotiations with Hamas, pushed forward with nuclear talks with Iran that exclude both Israel and Iran’s hardliners, and even opened up to ceasefire deals with the Houthis. In his first term, Trump had leaned fully pro-Israel—even ordering the assassination of Iran’s Qassem Soleimani—but now he seems unwilling to remain in a setup where Netanyahu offers him no political victories.

Trump’s approach, which includes floating grandiose ideas like turning Gaza into a “Middle Eastern Riviera,” reflects his "America First" posture in foreign policy. Unlike past administrations that centered regional strategy on Israel’s security, Trump is putting U.S. political and economic interests first. With Israel now facing a serious image crisis in American domestic politics, its ability to oppose Trump’s new strategy is more limited than ever.

Trump’s willingness to speak positively about a potential deal with Iran—and Netanyahu’s refusal to endorse military action against Tehran—suggests Israel’s grip on shaping U.S. regional policy is slipping.

An Uncertain Future for Trump-Netanyahu Ties

While it may be premature to declare the Trump-Netanyahu relationship beyond repair, their divergence is growing. Netanyahu’s refusal to offer Trump a clear win is a source of friction. As in the past, his government is likely to continue trying to manipulate Washington and force Israel’s security agenda to the forefront. But Trump’s second term—free from re-election worries and unburdened by Biden’s ideological commitments—will make this manipulation much harder.

Trump’s unpredictable style means he could still pivot to a staunchly pro-Israel stance at any moment. Yet he also seems to have learned a lesson: the Palestinian issue cannot be sidelined indefinitely. To secure deals with Iran and deepen ties with the Gulf, Trump now realizes he may need to rein in Netanyahu.

How he responds to Netanyahu’s provocations will shape the next chapter of U.S. policy in the Middle East.