Why Is Trump Bypassing Israel?

The fact that President Trump didn't add an Israel stop before or after his Gulf trip undermines America's carefully maintained image of "unshakable" relations with Israel. Of course, the issue isn't just about the visit - reports in the press suggesting Trump doesn't want to engage with Netanyahu indicate broader dissatisfaction behind the scenes.

It's undeniable that Israel's genocidal operation in Gaza has caused more debate in American public opinion than ever before. Both Israel-aligned lobby groups and Netanyahu himself have exhausted their credit by overreach, creating deep legitimacy problems in American politics. Seeing how Biden paid a heavy price for unconditional support, Trump appears to have chosen to bypass Israel after failing to get what he wanted from Netanyahu.

'AMERICA FIRST', THEN ISRAEL

Trump's recent steps bypassing the Netanyahu government show how the "America First" policy will be costly for Israel too. The hottest example is America negotiating directly with Hamas for the release of an American hostage without Israel's involvement. Other disturbing steps for Netanyahu include America successfully conducting direct ceasefire talks with Yemen's Houthis and acting independently from Israel in nuclear negotiations with Iran.

Trump doesn't want to miss opportunities he can use as victories in domestic politics and doesn't hesitate to sit at the negotiation table with any actor that can provide this. Compared to many American presidents who shaped Middle East policy as "Israel first", Trump has a different approach. While taking extremely "pro-Israel" steps like recognizing Jerusalem as Israel's capital, he also thought he could solve the Israel-Palestine issue through the Abraham Accords and "Deal of the Century".

From his perspective, Trump thinks he gave Israel and Evangelical supporters more than they wanted - now he expects political gains in return. While other presidents like Biden see supporting Israel as both a strategic and ideological necessity, for Trump there's no meaning in giving support if there's no concrete gain.

Netanyahu recently announced plans to occupy Gaza while assigning roles to American companies in aid distribution, trying to make Trump both partner in the occupation and believe he could profit from it. But compared to trillions of dollars in investment promised by the Gulf, this looks insignificant. Therefore Netanyahu's unwillingness to give Trump the prestige of being the man who solved the Palestine problem leads to Trump's dissatisfaction.

Seeing that taking over Gaza and turning it into a contractor project isn't realistic means a "high cost, low return" picture for Trump. While Netanyahu opposes nuclear deal with Iran on one hand, he wants to continue attacks on Yemen and make Gaza occupation permanent - resulting in Israel policy that constantly limits America's freedom of action. For Trump who sees issues as "America First, then Israel's interests if it suits us", Netanyahu emerges as actor who constantly creates costs but refuses to deliver political victories.

GAZA'S COST TO ISRAEL

Keeping distance from the Israeli administration or avoiding policy coordination has no serious cost in American domestic politics now. While Trump's current political strength plays a big role in this, we can also say Israel's attempt to label all criticism as antisemitism through lobby and pressure groups backfired during Gaza's destruction.

Of course Trump administration's harsh stance against pro-Israel campus protests can't be ignored - but it's clear Trump did this not because the Israel lobby wanted it, but to criminalize foreign campus activism and use it as a pressure tool against universities he sees as liberal. The main goal is taming leading American universities' liberal tendencies by threatening to cut federal funding.

During ethnic cleansing and genocide process in Gaza, even American media couldn't deny Israel's actions anymore. Biden's unconditional support caused Democrats to lose critical support that might cost them the presidency. Netanyahu who turned a deaf ear to all ceasefire calls and avoided good faith negotiations for hostages had said yes to a ceasefire when newly elected Trump called - just to maintain good relations.

But the Netanyahu administration which never moved to the second phase of the ceasefire and now announces permanent occupation plans played a leading role in increasing anti-Israel sentiment in American public opinion. Moreover, it's hard to remember a period when military and financial support to Israel became so problematic. Thus Israel's image seriously deteriorated in American public opinion and Trump knows taking a stance against Israel won't cost him politically.

The cost for Israel of destroying Gaza and making it unlivable is perhaps having American public sympathy at the lowest levels in history.

WHY TRUMP BYPASSED ISRAEL

Trump bypassing Israel stems from wanting to ensure America's freedom of movement in regional policies, Netanyahu not offering him a satisfying political victory opportunity, and not having significant political cost in American politics.

No doubt Trump may continue extremely pro-Israel policies going forward. But as he expressed in a famous White House press conference, he sees Israel as an ally that should be "reasonable" in the region and dependent on American aid. Netanyahu, used to American presidents who saw supporting Israel as a moral responsibility and ideological necessity, will have a hard time finding Washington he can direct as he wishes from now on.

Trump's words about Netanyahu talking tough about attacking Iran after Qasem Soleimani's assassination but avoiding it when things got serious also point to incompatibility between the two leaders. By negotiating directly with Iran, Hamas, and Houthis without coordinating with Israel, Trump shows he doesn't trust the Netanyahu administration.

Trump doesn't seem to have a vision of fundamentally changing America's Israel policy - but it's clear his "America First" policy requires keeping distance from Israel. While used to presidents who shaped Middle East policy as "Israel first", Netanyahu now faces an American leader who demands concrete returns for support - perhaps his greatest strategic challenge yet.