A New Phase in Syria: Ankara Puts Weapons on the Table

The Turkish Ministry of National Defense made a statement with significant implications: Syria has officially requested support from Turkey, specifically in the areas of defense and counterterrorism. This marks a new phase in the Syrian conflict, and there are several layers to unpack here.

For one, the fact that Syria reportedly made this request through the United Nations is notable. Then there’s Ankara’s message that in the new phase, diplomacy will be backed by hard power. The nature of the military support to be provided is also critical. And finally, issues such as counterterrorism and Israel merit their own deeper analysis. I’ll touch on all these. But first, some context.

Phase One: Diplomacy

After Assad regained control, Ankara adopted a cautious policy, aligning its approach with the U.S., Europe, and regional actors. The aim was to create an inclusive framework, restore Syrian stability, and facilitate its reintegration into the international system. Channels were opened for the SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces) to negotiate with Damascus. This was the diplomatic phase — and progress was made. Sanctions on Damascus were eased, HTS (Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham) was removed from terrorist lists, and just recently, Saudi businessmen visited Syria for investment talks.

U.S. President Trump once said, “Turkey holds the key to Syria.” There was an expectation of a Turkey-Damascus security agreement. Israel, worried about potential Turkish bases in southern Syria, even bombed Syrian military positions. Netanyahu traveled to Washington to voice his concerns to Trump, who reportedly warned him to “be reasonable.” While such a deal was anticipated, the initiative needed to come from Damascus. But Syria insisted on handling things on its own — even as Israeli bombs fell, a colleague remarked, “I’m surprised they still haven’t asked Ankara for help.”

As previously written, Israel prefers weak neighbors. Its plan was to divide Syria into four zones of influence, aiming to claim the south. Taking on the role of protector of the Druze, it pushed for demilitarization there. Though it faced U.S. pushback and eventually sat down with Damascus in talks (in Muscat and Baku), it never truly abandoned this strategy.

Suwayda Becomes a Tipping Point

Recent developments have upset a delicate balance:

Just three days after 30 PKK members burned their weapons, unrest erupted in Suwayda. Israeli strikes prevented Damascus from deploying forces to the south, effectively demilitarizing the region. It’s still unclear how Suwayda will be reintegrated into the Syrian state, which has emboldened the SDF.

The SDF continues to pursue a separatist agenda and excludes itself from the “Terror-Free Türkiye” process. Trump’s envoy, Richard Barrack, met with Mazloum Abdi. Reportedly, the U.S. gave the SDF two months to reach a deal with Damascus — or funding would be cut. Though the SDF has dropped the term “federalism,” it still demands a “decentralized structure” — which amounts to the same thing. After Suwayda, their rhetoric has grown bolder. The SDF is going off-script, prompting Foreign Minister Fidan’s warning: “Careful. Don’t.”

The U.S. is not entirely aligned with Israel but isn’t actively curbing its actions either. Trump allegedly learned of an Israeli strike on Damascus from TV, and immediately called Netanyahu to express discomfort. That’s good — but it doesn’t solve the problem.

President Bashar al-Assad is walking a tightrope. On one hand, his domestic base; on the other, the need to preserve national unity and secure international backing. Israel is working to demonize him, even eliminate him. The Suwayda crisis shook his presidency. And Assad has no real successor — his absence could open the door to unpredictable outcomes.

Ankara and Damascus Shift Positions

These events have prompted both Syria and Türkiye to reconsider their positions. The first indication of this shift came from Foreign Minister Fidan, who warned: “If you move toward division [in Syria], we will intervene.” The Defense Ministry followed with its own statement. Let’s break this down:

Syria’s request for security support was reportedly made through the UN. This legitimizes any Turkish actions under international law in the context of counterterrorism and stabilization. Ankara will respond positively to the request.

This move clearly sends a message to the SDF and other actors pushing for division. It can be summarized like this: “We’ve talked enough. Now I’m putting my gun on the table. Let’s keep talking.”

This doesn’t mean Turkish troops will immediately deploy to Syria. Developments will be monitored closely. Under this new arrangement, Türkiye will provide technical assistance — training and advisory support — to the Syrian army. A large Syrian delegation was present at the IDEF defense expo this week, closely examining Turkish defense products.

Will Turkish troops establish bases in Syria? Training and advisory operations may be conducted at existing Syrian military facilities.

Will the U.S. revise its Syria exit timeline following these developments? No. The plan remains to reduce U.S. bases in Syria from nine to one, possibly retaining one other.

Hoping for a Eurofighter Discount

A key development came at IDEF when Turkish Defense Minister Yaşar Güler signed a memorandum of understanding with his British counterpart regarding Eurofighter jets. All remaining hurdles to the purchase have now been cleared. Ankara is awaiting a price reduction from the UK. If that comes through, Türkiye will make a counteroffer — and the process will speed up. The purchase of 40 Eurofighters will significantly boost Türkiye’s air force capabilities.