Israeli analysts say Tel Aviv's wars are solely driven by Prime Minister Netanyahu's objective of political survival as he faces growing domestic pressure, corruption trials, and a weakening coalition
- Netanyahu believes ‘the only way to come back to history as a winner ... is to dismantle the nuclear program in Iran,' says Israeli academic Neve Gordon
- ‘Netanyahu wants to make it seem like Israel is in existential danger, which it really very clearly isn't,' says Israeli analyst Ori Goldberg
As a fragile ceasefire – or at least the possibility of one – emerges between Israel and Iran, skepticism abounds over whether any sort of truce could actually be sustained, with observers pointing to Tel Aviv's persistent violations of similar deals for Gaza and Lebanon.
Another major cause for doubt is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's own calculations, which analysts suggest are driven by the sole objective of political survival as he faces growing domestic unpopularity, corruption trials, and a weakening coalition.
Wars have evidently become a key part of Netanyahu's survival strategy, with Israel's attacks on Iran coming shortly after the premier narrowly survived no-confidence votes that threatened to dissolve parliament and trigger early elections.
For one of them, only a last-minute deal for mandatory military service with ultra-Orthodox parties prevented his government's collapse, showing just how thin the political ice is getting under Netanyahu.
Israeli academic Neve Gordon believes Israel's decision to attack Iran was largely driven by Netanyahu's pride and his desire to re-establish himself as a “successful leader.”
“I do think it's about hubris. It's about his hubris and about Israel's hubris as a member state in the Middle East,” Gordon told Anadolu.
Following Hamas' Oct. 7, 2023 attacks, Netanyahu recognized his historical reputation had been severely damaged, prompting his deadly and drastic actions, Gordon said.
“He launched a genocidal war on the Palestinian people in Gaza in order to dismantle Hamas,” said the academic.
According to Gordon, Netanyahu believes the “only way to come back to history as a winner ... is to dismantle the nuclear program in Iran.”
This was reflected in the official Israeli statement put out on Tuesday to accept US President Donald Trump's ceasefire call, which claimed that Israel had achieved the “operation's goals” and “removed the double existential threat in the nuclear and the ballistic missile areas.”
Gordon emphasized that Netanyahu, in the first place, launched the Iranian offensive despite US intelligence and other assessments contradicting Israeli claims that Tehran was close to attaining nuclear weapons.
“Even though he knew in advance that such a war could lead to scores, if not hundreds, of Israeli dead and could develop into a regional war impacting the whole world, he decided to go ahead with it to ensure his place in history is marked by this so-called success,” said the expert.
- Internal political cracks
For months now, experts have argued that Netanyahu has deliberately prolonged Israel's genocidal war on Gaza to maintain support from his far-right political allies.
“It's clear that if he decided to stop it, some coalition members in his government would leave, and his government would fall,” Gordon said.
If Netanyahu's government collapses, he added, new elections would follow, a scenario he seeks to avoid due to ongoing corruption trials.
Gordon, a professor of international law and human rights at Queen Mary University of London, highlighted Netanyahu's declining popularity prior to the Iranian conflict.
“Polls did not show that he was going up, and it was not clear that if there were elections, even after 21 months of genocidal violence against the Palestinians … he would win the elections.”
However, the Israeli prime minister has recently seen a resurgence of support following Israel's conflict with Iran.
Citizens and politicians, including opposition figures like Yair Lapid, have rallied around him, despite months of criticism and calls for his resignation.
Despite this temporary rise, Gordon believes Netanyahu's popularity might decline again if the war persists.
“It could well lead to his downfall too … He thinks that this war will help him with the polls, and I will not be surprised if, in the next few weeks, he calls for early elections,” Gordon explained.
- ‘An extremely dangerous leader'
Israeli analyst Ori Goldberg also sees domestic motivations behind Netanyahu's actions, emphasizing his intent to preserve his fragile coalition.
He said Netanyahu has faced much pressure over a law that ultra-Orthodox politicians want to pass to provide ultra-Orthodox young men an exemption from military service.
These allies have yet to act on their threat to pull back support but they might in the future, said Goldberg.
“To get them back in line, Netanyahu wants to make it seem like Israel is in existential danger, which it really very clearly isn't,” he added.
Goldberg suggested that Netanyahu has also escalated tensions with Iran partly because Israel was failing to achieve tangible victories in Gaza.
“Israel can't make the Gaza war reach some kind of victory. It cannot destroy Hamas, no matter how many Palestinians it kills. So that's the reason for the escalation,” he said.
Gordon concluded with a stark warning about Netanyahu's actions destabilizing regional security: “He's put the Israeli people at risk. He's put the Iranian people at risk. He's put the whole Middle East at risk, and that is a very dangerous thing to do.”
He described Netanyahu as “an extremely dangerous leader,” urging international leaders to ramp up pressure for an end to Israel's deadly aggression.
“We want an immediate ceasefire, and we want the Israeli military to pull out of the Gaza Strip and stop the genocidal violence there.”
