The limits of Trump's Ukraine strategy...

During his presidential campaign, Trump stood out with his promise to end the war in Ukraine. But so far, he’s failed to come up with a viable strategy. Back then, he strongly opposed aid to Ukraine. Even while in office, Trump tried to pressure Russia into peace by occasionally halting aid packages approved during the Biden administration. He broke away from Biden’s policy of isolating Russia and offering continued support to Ukraine for “as long as it takes,” but his approach hasn’t delivered results.

After a scandalous clash with President Zelensky at the White House, Trump signed a rare earth minerals agreement with Ukraine, hoping to open diplomatic channels to end the war. But those efforts also fell flat. His recent harsh rhetoric against Putin suggests he may be pivoting again—this time toward increasing pressure on Russia. Still, it’s hard to believe this tactic will work when it hasn’t moved Putin toward the negotiating table in over three years. The odds of it leading to lasting peace are slim.

Biden’s Legacy

Russia’s initial attempt to invade Ukraine failed largely due to early U.S. intelligence warnings, Zelensky’s decision to stay and lead, and the Russian military’s inability to quickly take Kyiv. Once Russia shifted focus to the eastern front, the war turned into a long, drawn-out battle of attrition.

The U.S. succeeded in uniting its European allies to isolate Russia and support Ukraine. Washington had already laid the groundwork for such support after the 2014 annexation of Crimea. Billions of dollars in aid and weapons helped Ukraine hold its ground. But fears of the war spilling into Europe or escalating into a nuclear conflict meant the West’s objective wasn’t a Ukrainian victory—it was to keep the country from collapsing.

One of the Biden administration’s key failures was its inability to isolate Russia globally. China and much of the Global South refused to take a clear stance against Moscow. Biden focused solely on keeping European allies on board, turning the war into a proxy fight between NATO and Russia, played out on Ukrainian soil. His hesitation to send advanced weapons—out of concern over provoking Russia—prolonged the conflict. At home, he struggled to counter Republican opposition to continued aid, putting future support at risk.

Worst of all, Biden never clearly defined the endgame. Without a realistic plan to push Putin toward peace, his open-ended backing of Zelensky fell short of offering a strategy to end the war.

The Politics of Ukraine Aid

Biden kept going to Congress for Ukraine aid packages without articulating a clear final objective, which turned support for Ukraine into a politically divisive issue. When Trump questioned why the U.S. should protect Ukraine’s borders while failing to secure its own southern border, Biden had no compelling response. Even though the administration took steps to secure a year’s worth of aid, uncertainty remained.

Reports that Trump would halt aid to Ukraine as soon as he returned to office played into Russia’s strategy of dragging out the war. His public confrontation with Zelensky in the White House emboldened Moscow, which was betting on Western support for Ukraine to fade.

Despite Trump’s deep skepticism toward Ukraine aid, the rare earth minerals deal seemed to convince him that a reasonable agreement with Zelensky was possible. But Trump still hasn’t been able to get Putin to the table. His recent tough talk points to a shift toward pressuring Russia via aid to Ukraine, but this won’t be enough. Simply letting previously approved aid flow without pushing for new packages won’t move the needle.

It’s unrealistic to think Putin will agree to talks without a major escalation from the U.S.—and even then, only if that pressure is tied to a clear exit plan that Russia could accept. But Washington has never developed such a formula. And frankly, Putin’s maximalist demands are the biggest obstacle. He shows no sign of accepting any scenario that doesn’t acknowledge Russia’s territorial gains or push Ukraine permanently away from NATO.

Even if Trump’s tone has gotten tougher, it’s clear that he still lacks a coherent Ukraine strategy. Biden’s approach hasn’t worked either. The U.S. has little appetite for open-ended aid, and the West isn’t unified enough to fully isolate Russia.

If Trump truly wants to force Putin into a peace deal, he’ll need to confront the deep gap between Russia’s demands and what Ukraine can accept—and craft a plan based on that reality. Russia has paid too high a price to simply give in because Washington turns up the heat.

In the end, America’s internal contradictions and indecision on Ukraine are the biggest barriers to meaningful diplomacy. If Trump wants to be the one who ends the war, he’ll have to break that cycle and come up with a strategy that actually changes the dynamics.